Regional Politics
Conflicting political interests and increasing tensions over the use of water have adversely affected regional relations, thus thwarting efforts to promote cooperation on water management in Central Asia. After independence, three out of the five Central Asian leaders came out of the Communist Party and continued the top-down governance used during the Soviet era. Although the region is widely authoritarian, this year the Kyrgyzstan constitution created a parliamentary democracy which balances power between the executive and Parliament. However, it has yet to be seen how effective these efforts will be in the future.
Internal politics with the states of Central Asia is not only affecting the stability within the countries themselves but how they relate to one another. Foreign Policy and the Fund for Peace’s Failed State Index (FSI) is an annual rating based on 12 social, economic, and political indicators of risk. According to the 2010 Index, three of the Central Asian countries were performing similarly based on these indicators: Uzbekistan (#36), Tajikistan (#38) and Kyrgyzstan (#45). Additionally, the index considered Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan to be “in danger” based on their Failed State indicators.
Conflicting political interests and increasing tensions over the use of water have adversely affected regional relations, thus thwarting efforts to promote cooperation on water management in Central Asia. After independence, three out of the five Central Asian leaders came out of the Communist Party and continued the top-down governance used during the Soviet era. Although the region is widely authoritarian, this year the Kyrgyzstan constitution created a parliamentary democracy which balances power between the executive and Parliament. However, it has yet to be seen how effective these efforts will be in the future.
Internal politics with the states of Central Asia is not only affecting the stability within the countries themselves but how they relate to one another. Foreign Policy and the Fund for Peace’s Failed State Index (FSI) is an annual rating based on 12 social, economic, and political indicators of risk. According to the 2010 Index, three of the Central Asian countries were performing similarly based on these indicators: Uzbekistan (#36), Tajikistan (#38) and Kyrgyzstan (#45). Additionally, the index considered Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan to be “in danger” based on their Failed State indicators.
Corruption is rampant and political leaders have been involved in the pilfering of national resources as though they were at their sole disposal. The powerful executive offices present an opportunity and pose a challenge as they allow for quick and decisive action, but the lack of political will of the Central Asian leaders, irrespective of the prevailing public sentiment, thwart efforts to cooperate. Moreover, these states have become economic competitors, as they are no longer part of the same economic bloc and can utilize their natural resources to earn export revenue. This has been further intensified through the region’s move towards a market economy and the divergent uses of water: agricultural expansion versus increased hydroelectric power generation. Diverging national interests have led to low political will to prioritize regional interests and this lack of a shared vision for a mutually beneficial agreement has prevented effective cooperation.
Divergent approaches to regional water management have also thwarted effective cooperation. The downstream countries favor maintaining old Soviet Union quotas, whereas the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan are in favor of receiving payment for water supplied to the downstream states.The Kyrgyz Republic, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan each have constitutions which state that water is a state resource. This debate over water allocation extends once again to water being used for agriculture versus hydroelectric generation. Moreover, downstream countries have claimed that international rivers should be a common good shared by all countries. This illustrates the problem of whether water is a public good or a commodity. Another element to this debate is whether to use domestic or international water law in order to find a resolution to the dispute. Various water agreements have been broken due to the reasons mentioned above. As these countries pursue often conflicting sovereign interests, the incentive to uphold any agreement will be weak. Moreover, lack of funding and enforcement mechanisms within the agreements further weaken their effectiveness.
Divergent approaches to regional water management have also thwarted effective cooperation. The downstream countries favor maintaining old Soviet Union quotas, whereas the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan are in favor of receiving payment for water supplied to the downstream states.The Kyrgyz Republic, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan each have constitutions which state that water is a state resource. This debate over water allocation extends once again to water being used for agriculture versus hydroelectric generation. Moreover, downstream countries have claimed that international rivers should be a common good shared by all countries. This illustrates the problem of whether water is a public good or a commodity. Another element to this debate is whether to use domestic or international water law in order to find a resolution to the dispute. Various water agreements have been broken due to the reasons mentioned above. As these countries pursue often conflicting sovereign interests, the incentive to uphold any agreement will be weak. Moreover, lack of funding and enforcement mechanisms within the agreements further weaken their effectiveness.
Distribution of Natural Resources
Overall, Central Asia is blessed with a range of natural resources such as oil, gas, minerals and hydropower, which could drive the region forward socially and economically. However, the distribution of resources favors the downstream countries (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan), which posses oil and gas reserves that are sought after by Russia, China and Europe. The upstream countries (Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan) have glaciers that produce the water for downstream irrigation and hydro-electricity and also selected mineral resources like gold, rare earth metals and aluminum. The downstream countries have used oil and gas resources, and agricultural exports to boost their national incomes and level of development. Kazakhstan has been the most successful. Upstream countries, especially Tajikistan have few options for development other than exploiting water resources through hydropower development. The two upstream countries are the poorest nations in the region. This unbalanced distribution of natural resources has created the dynamics of the “haves” versus the “have nots’” between the upstream and the downstream countries.
Kazakhstan has done the most to leverage its crude oil resources by linking up to pipelines to China, Russia and Europe. The country has 30 billion barrels of crude oil in proven oil reserves and more oil reserves are expected to be explored soon in the Caspian Sea. The country has doubled its oil production over the last decade, mostly for exports. American and Russian oil companies have been brought to help extract this oil. Kazakhstan also has significant reserves of coal that was developed in the Soviet era, and it continues to be exported to other Central Asia countries. In recent years Kazakhstan has linked up to a number of oil and gas pipelines including the Russian controlled Caspian Pipeline Consortium, the Kazakhstan-China Pipeline and the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline, supported by the United States and Europe, seeking to undercut Russian influence over energy supplies to Europe.
Turkmenistan, with major reserves of natural gas is only beginning to enter into the new “great energy game” of playing off Russia, China and Europe and the United States. Over the last decade, Turkmenistan dealt exclusively with Russian pipelines but that is beginning to change. With the 4th biggest globally proven reserves of natural gas, Turkmenistan has inked pipeline deals with Russia and China in 2007. Energy hungry China has become a big customer for Turkmenistan, to the extent of hiring a Russian construction company to finish the natural gas pipeline to China. China is also seen as likely investors in Turkmenistan’s state energy companies, fueling further growth.
Overall, Central Asia is blessed with a range of natural resources such as oil, gas, minerals and hydropower, which could drive the region forward socially and economically. However, the distribution of resources favors the downstream countries (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan), which posses oil and gas reserves that are sought after by Russia, China and Europe. The upstream countries (Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan) have glaciers that produce the water for downstream irrigation and hydro-electricity and also selected mineral resources like gold, rare earth metals and aluminum. The downstream countries have used oil and gas resources, and agricultural exports to boost their national incomes and level of development. Kazakhstan has been the most successful. Upstream countries, especially Tajikistan have few options for development other than exploiting water resources through hydropower development. The two upstream countries are the poorest nations in the region. This unbalanced distribution of natural resources has created the dynamics of the “haves” versus the “have nots’” between the upstream and the downstream countries.
Kazakhstan has done the most to leverage its crude oil resources by linking up to pipelines to China, Russia and Europe. The country has 30 billion barrels of crude oil in proven oil reserves and more oil reserves are expected to be explored soon in the Caspian Sea. The country has doubled its oil production over the last decade, mostly for exports. American and Russian oil companies have been brought to help extract this oil. Kazakhstan also has significant reserves of coal that was developed in the Soviet era, and it continues to be exported to other Central Asia countries. In recent years Kazakhstan has linked up to a number of oil and gas pipelines including the Russian controlled Caspian Pipeline Consortium, the Kazakhstan-China Pipeline and the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline, supported by the United States and Europe, seeking to undercut Russian influence over energy supplies to Europe.
Turkmenistan, with major reserves of natural gas is only beginning to enter into the new “great energy game” of playing off Russia, China and Europe and the United States. Over the last decade, Turkmenistan dealt exclusively with Russian pipelines but that is beginning to change. With the 4th biggest globally proven reserves of natural gas, Turkmenistan has inked pipeline deals with Russia and China in 2007. Energy hungry China has become a big customer for Turkmenistan, to the extent of hiring a Russian construction company to finish the natural gas pipeline to China. China is also seen as likely investors in Turkmenistan’s state energy companies, fueling further growth.
Climate Change
Global warming is already being felt in Central Asia with melting glaciers in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan and rising temperatures in the downstream countries that will have a real impact on agricultural practices. A World Bank report on climate change in Europe and Central Asia observed climate change will inflame even further the current conflict over transboundary flows of water. Climate change acts as a “threat multiplier” for the entire Central Asia water crisis, making it more severe. Since the 1970s, temperature has risen twice as fast in Central Asia compared to global levels. This report noted that increased winter precipitation will be offset by hotter temperatures in the summer causing increased evaporation. A projected 20 percent decline in river runoff in the upstream countries will only complicate the current unsustainable water management practices and increase demand for water in Central Asia. There will also be an increased risk of natural disasters like destructive mudslides in Kyrgyzstan.
Research from the Institute of Water Problems and Hydro Energy at the National Academy of Sciences in Kyrgyzstan found that the ice melted from glaciers has tripled from 1950 levels. In recent decades, upwards of 20 percent of Kyrgyzstan’s glaciers have already melted. Rising temperature and water shortages will likely inflict damage on arid soils and harm plant productivity of irrigation-intensive crops like cotton. Climate change is spurring growing desiccation in Central Asia. Food yields could decline by 30 percent. Small farmers will also be the hardest hit from climate change. Tajikistan in recent years experienced recent droughts and extreme weather which had a severe impact on the rural poor. The country in 2008 survived a severe cold winter, with temperatures falling to 20 C below zero for an extended period. This cold weather has damaged many crops, orchards and killed nearly all of the livestock. Moreover, aging energy infrastructure collapsed under the pressure of cold temperatures. Tajikistan experienced a 40 percent decline in food yields after the cold snap and drought.
Kazakhstan with its reliance on coal and oil has made it a leading emitter of greenhouse gases (GHS) along with Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Yet, the level of economic growth in these polluting countries has not returned to the 1990s levels, due to the overall industrial decline in Central Asia. On the other hand, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan with its reliance on hydropower emit low rates of GHS.
Many countries are now undertaking planning for adapting over the long term to climate change. This process will require developing nations to place greater emphasis on water resources and seek out adaptation funding from the Global Environment Facility, financed by the World Bank. Most experts believe freshwater resources will be one of the areas that will be affected early by climate change. Central Asian countries could be helped by “carbon financed” green investments like small-scale renewable energy technology from the Clean Development Mechanism facilitated by the Kyoto Protocol to fight climate change. The region could also benefit from the growing concern by the international community about the fate of glaciers in the greater Himalayas, which is the source of water for over a billion people in South and Southeast Asia.
There is growing concern that increased climate change could lead to more political instability in Central Asia as seen by the crisis in Kyrgyzstan. In 2007, UK based International Alert placed the entire region in its global list of countries facing potential political instability from the impact of climate change and increased stress on natural resources and food security. Freshwater resources could be one of the first areas hit by climate change. Additionally, social tensions from rising temperatures may raise the risk that weak governance in Central Asia causes.
Global warming is already being felt in Central Asia with melting glaciers in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan and rising temperatures in the downstream countries that will have a real impact on agricultural practices. A World Bank report on climate change in Europe and Central Asia observed climate change will inflame even further the current conflict over transboundary flows of water. Climate change acts as a “threat multiplier” for the entire Central Asia water crisis, making it more severe. Since the 1970s, temperature has risen twice as fast in Central Asia compared to global levels. This report noted that increased winter precipitation will be offset by hotter temperatures in the summer causing increased evaporation. A projected 20 percent decline in river runoff in the upstream countries will only complicate the current unsustainable water management practices and increase demand for water in Central Asia. There will also be an increased risk of natural disasters like destructive mudslides in Kyrgyzstan.
Research from the Institute of Water Problems and Hydro Energy at the National Academy of Sciences in Kyrgyzstan found that the ice melted from glaciers has tripled from 1950 levels. In recent decades, upwards of 20 percent of Kyrgyzstan’s glaciers have already melted. Rising temperature and water shortages will likely inflict damage on arid soils and harm plant productivity of irrigation-intensive crops like cotton. Climate change is spurring growing desiccation in Central Asia. Food yields could decline by 30 percent. Small farmers will also be the hardest hit from climate change. Tajikistan in recent years experienced recent droughts and extreme weather which had a severe impact on the rural poor. The country in 2008 survived a severe cold winter, with temperatures falling to 20 C below zero for an extended period. This cold weather has damaged many crops, orchards and killed nearly all of the livestock. Moreover, aging energy infrastructure collapsed under the pressure of cold temperatures. Tajikistan experienced a 40 percent decline in food yields after the cold snap and drought.
Kazakhstan with its reliance on coal and oil has made it a leading emitter of greenhouse gases (GHS) along with Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Yet, the level of economic growth in these polluting countries has not returned to the 1990s levels, due to the overall industrial decline in Central Asia. On the other hand, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan with its reliance on hydropower emit low rates of GHS.
Many countries are now undertaking planning for adapting over the long term to climate change. This process will require developing nations to place greater emphasis on water resources and seek out adaptation funding from the Global Environment Facility, financed by the World Bank. Most experts believe freshwater resources will be one of the areas that will be affected early by climate change. Central Asian countries could be helped by “carbon financed” green investments like small-scale renewable energy technology from the Clean Development Mechanism facilitated by the Kyoto Protocol to fight climate change. The region could also benefit from the growing concern by the international community about the fate of glaciers in the greater Himalayas, which is the source of water for over a billion people in South and Southeast Asia.
There is growing concern that increased climate change could lead to more political instability in Central Asia as seen by the crisis in Kyrgyzstan. In 2007, UK based International Alert placed the entire region in its global list of countries facing potential political instability from the impact of climate change and increased stress on natural resources and food security. Freshwater resources could be one of the first areas hit by climate change. Additionally, social tensions from rising temperatures may raise the risk that weak governance in Central Asia causes.
Management of Water Sector
The Central Asian countries have some of the largest irrigation schemes in the world, and some 22 million people in these countries depend directly or indirectly upon irrigated agriculture for their livelihoods. Entire communities came into being solely because of irrigation development and settlement schemes during the Soviet era. Today twenty to forty percent of the GDP of these countries is derived from agriculture, almost all of which are irrigated, and without irrigation, much of the land would revert to desert scrub.
Irrigation benefited from massive investment during the Soviet era, but water was not well managed. Water application rates were extremely high, which reduced the quality of farmland through the rising water table and salinization. The irrigation systems were in poor condition even before the Central Asian countries became independent in 1991. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the situation has worsened considerably. Both government budgets and farm incomes have fallen dramatically, water management institutions have weakened and institutional structures are generally not strong enough to ensure efficient water management. Thus, much of the infrastructure is fast approaching collapse. Canals are silted up or damaged, gates broken down or non-existent and pumps held together by improvised repairs and parts taken from other machinery. The problem is exacerbated by the shrinking of the Aral Sea, and winter floods caused by excessive reservoir drainage. The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) reports that the Central Asian region loses $1.7 billion a year, which constitutes three percent of the region’s GDP from the poor water management that lowers agricultural yields.
The Central Asian countries have some of the largest irrigation schemes in the world, and some 22 million people in these countries depend directly or indirectly upon irrigated agriculture for their livelihoods. Entire communities came into being solely because of irrigation development and settlement schemes during the Soviet era. Today twenty to forty percent of the GDP of these countries is derived from agriculture, almost all of which are irrigated, and without irrigation, much of the land would revert to desert scrub.
Irrigation benefited from massive investment during the Soviet era, but water was not well managed. Water application rates were extremely high, which reduced the quality of farmland through the rising water table and salinization. The irrigation systems were in poor condition even before the Central Asian countries became independent in 1991. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the situation has worsened considerably. Both government budgets and farm incomes have fallen dramatically, water management institutions have weakened and institutional structures are generally not strong enough to ensure efficient water management. Thus, much of the infrastructure is fast approaching collapse. Canals are silted up or damaged, gates broken down or non-existent and pumps held together by improvised repairs and parts taken from other machinery. The problem is exacerbated by the shrinking of the Aral Sea, and winter floods caused by excessive reservoir drainage. The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) reports that the Central Asian region loses $1.7 billion a year, which constitutes three percent of the region’s GDP from the poor water management that lowers agricultural yields.
Source: Water Crisis in Central Asia: Key Challenges and Opportunities. Available at http://milanoschool.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Water-Crisis-CA-12.15-final-presentation.pdf